Stats On Monday, analysts also expect the Institute for Supply Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report for March , and *****, U.S. STOCKS HIGHER, SHAKE OFF AMAZON DECLINE (1040 Communication services stocks are on pace for their best day since Feb. 2, with the sector last up about 5.8%. The 2003 low was a retest of the 2002 lows, but the prospect of moving to new lows for the cycle made investors incredibly bearish. Microsoft said it plans to appeal the decision. have the potential to trigger a sharp downside spill. Neutral sentiment and optimism both decreased. artificial intelligence providing significant productivity gains AAII has helped over 2 million individuals The incident resulted in a $325 million revenue impact for the first quarter, Southwest said. FED UP: PCE, EMPLOYMENT COSTS, UMICH, CHICAGO PMI (1205 The fear and greed index, first developed by CNNMoney, aims to measure these two primary emotions since they have been found to influence how much investors are willing to pay for stocks. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) was shuffling between gains and losses. This week's special question asked AAII members if they think investors are too bullish or bearish right now. The company reported $1.40 in adjusted earnings per share, eight cents more than anticipated by analysts polled by Refinitiv. The past several weeks have seen the AAII sentiment survey come in a relatively tight range between the high of 24.8% on March 9th and a low of 19.2% the following week. Market sentiment refers to the dominant consensus feeling (bullish or bearish) of the market toward an individual stock or security, an industry, or a financial market at large. Their answer: Could there be a clearer signal of the market's current tug-of-war? Hershey's stock hit an all-time high on Thursday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting a 0.5% increase. "Despite the deal likely dead in water, we view this as a strong buying opportunity given its cheap relative valuation to EA, momentum in core franchises (CoD/Candy Crush), along with upcoming catalysts in Diablo 4/Warzone Mobile," Barclays analyst Mario Lu wrote Wednesday. volatility measure on a daily basis collapse to a 20-month low, Major U.S. averages are higher in the early stages of you by Reuters reporters. "We've seen a significant shift over the last six months from a supply side issue to actual demand-side inflation the supply issue is largely due to the onshoring of manufacturing and the desire for independence in parallel to deglobalization," he added. Some common market sentiment indicators include: Investors may use market sentiment indicators to analyze trends and assets, as well as to judge the overall state of the economy from the perspective of the participants involved. Stocks are managing to gain even after economic data showed that underlying inflation pressures remain strong, while consumer spending has leveled off. "The lack of housing inventory is a major constraint to rising sales," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. The bottom panel shows the spread between the two, bullish minus bearish, and the neutral responses are not included here. Members simply click bullish, bearish, or neutral, based on their. Several analysts hiked their price targets following the release. AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Moves Closer to 50% Sentiment Survey AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Drops to a Six-Month Low Sentiment Survey AAII Sentiment Survey: Neutral Sentiment Above Average for 10th Consecutive Week Sentiment Survey AAII Sentiment Survey: Neutral Sentiment Above Average for Ninth Consecutive Week Asset Allocation Survey Post-earnings rallies from Meta and Comcast have pushed the communication services sector of the S&P 500 far above the rest of the index. Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors. up. As you can see, the sentiment remained excessively bearish for over a year, culminating in the quite negative readings in March 2009. AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Remains Above Average For 10th Conversely, to bullish sentiment, that is the highest reading since the end of March. However, Caterpillar, another barometer of the global economy, fell around 0.9% as investors feared a build-up in inventory suggests demand is slowing. this week, the lowest reading since the end of March. approaching an "unusually high" level again. Figure 18. Bearish sentiment that's "now approaching an unusually high level again," according to the AAII, is a good sign for contrarian investors. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity. As mentioned above, market sentiment analysis is not an exact science; therefore, investors should approach the labels associated with sentiment with caution. 86 0 obj <>stream remainder of this year as payroll growth rolls over and But a review of the AAII survey data over the last 25 years shows that this has indeed occurred but only some of the time. ended at its tightest reading since August 25, 2021. (1000 EDT/1400 GMT). I did not expect to get these results when I broke it down by how close the SPX was to an all-time high. This trend, which will require more investment at a time when interest rate hikes are raising the cost of capital and could result in increased inflationary pressures but the adoption of AI technology could potentially offset this, said Stefan Rust, founder and CEO at data aggregator Truflation. 5T3{Rp-ms@& n%/i f[t*%A|E74]@9g0 =+ AAII reported that bearish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, rose 3.4 percentage points to 38.5%. AAII Sentiment Survey: Neutral And Bearish Sentiment Rebound The Nasdaq Composite jumped 2.4% in its best day since last month as Big Tech rallied. inflation won't moderate quickly," Klachkin adds. After rising to 27.2% last week, only 24.1% of respondents reported as bullish this week, the lowest reading since the end of March. Shares of Mobileye were down 22% in midday trading. programs of education, publications, Perhaps not surprisingly, the S&P 500 tech sector S5INFT is exhibiting similarly tight daily BB width as the Nasdaq Composite. with lots to chew on, but did little to move the needle with You can share your thoughts with us at. No opinion/Not sure: 20.6% Conversely, taking out the lower daily BB, which ended Thursday at 11,855, as well as Tuesday's low at 11,798, and the 50-day moving average, which closed Thursday at 11,788, will have the potential to trigger a sharp downside spill. The percent of bears, or those who think stocks will fall over the next six months, shot up to 60.9% for the week ended Sept. 21, from 46% the week before, the AAII said. With this, both optimism and neutral sentiment declined. Revenue also beat expectations, coming in at $14.49 billion against the consensus estimate of $13.78 billion. The tech stock was last up more than 15%. As a result, net bull-bear percentage plunged to -16.90%, the first negative reading since September 2020. We want to hear from you. Pessimism among individual investors stayed above average for the 10th consecutive week in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. individual investors. Ebay's estimated current-quarter revenue of $2.47 billion to $2.54 billion topped analysts' consensus projection of $2.43 billion. However, financial analysts and investors use investor sentiment analysis to gauge how positive and negative market sentiment is driving price fluctuations and creating opportunities. The sector is up more than 4.5% Thursday, led up by advances of more than 14% and 6% from Meta and Comcast, respectively. cost in the past as a potential blueprint for AI's impact on The Latest | AAII mentions in earnings calls skyrocket this season. Fidelity National earned an adjusted $1.29 per share on revenue of $3.51 billion. LIVE MARKETS-Scared of banks, pending doom? Take a deep breath -Bernstein *****. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh. "The backbone of the US economy isn't in recession today, but we think one is on the way.". Short-term investors and financial/technical analysts often rely on investor sentiment because it helps them value investments in the short term. On Monday, analysts also expect the Institute for Supply Management's nationwide PMI number to show a shallower monthly contraction in March, with consensus calling for a half-point improvement to 46.8. The company also raised the low end of its revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance. The headline number cooled substantially, both on a monthly Thursday at 11,855, as well as Tuesday's low at 11,798, and the Sign up for free newsletters and get more CNBC delivered to your inbox. Individual investors are so bearish it's a contrarian buy signal that should mean a 15% gain, RBC says. But what does that mean? This market sentiment data is compiled and depicted below for individual use. I also noticed that the bearish number, at almost 60%, is the lowest we've seen in over five years. Compressed band width does not in itself predict direction, but traders are on alert for what could end up being a surprisingly strong IXIC range breakout. "I dont think we escape another 25 basis point rate hike at their next meeting," Cardillo adds. U.S. STOCKS HIGHER, SHAKE OFF AMAZON DECLINE (1040 EDT/1440 GMT). Optimism is "unusually low for the 49th time out of the past 69 weeks.". 10 Weeks Of Bearish Sentiment | Seeking Alpha As a result, net bull-bear percentage plunged to -16.90%, the first negative reading since September 2020. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 524.29 points, or 1.57%, to close at 33,826.16. AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Stays Above 60% The carrier had a meltdown in the final days of December, when it canceled more than 16,000 flights in late December. Management cited weakness in China's electric vehicle market as a driver of the chilled expectations. On the flipside, the April 2018 and May 2019 dips below -15% marked lows in the S&P 500 and foreshadowed significant advances. Bearish sentiment is above its historical average of 31.0% for the 70th time out of the past 75 weeks. If you're looking at the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey for guidance on the possible future direction of the market, it's important to understand that it is deemed a contrarian indicator. Bearish sentiment is above its historical average of 31.0% for the 70th time out of the past 75 weeks. After an occurrence in which the index was farther away from an all-time high, the SPX averaged a gain of 1.42%, with 68% of the returns positive. I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours.
